CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SUN 07/03 - 06Z MON 08/03 2004
ISSUED: 06/03 16:58Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across the central Mediterranean regions.

SYNOPSIS

Upper long-wave trough will cover central Europe at the beginning of the forecast period. Several vort maxima are present at the periphery of this trough ... model fields suggest that strongest CVA will be associated with a rather weak vort max which is expected to be located over the central Mediterranean Sea by Sunday 12Z. SFC low currently forming over the NW Mediterranean ... is not expected to deepen much over the period ... and to drift slowly eastwards into the N Adriatic Sea by Monday 06Z.

DISCUSSION

...Central Mediterranean...
Low-level dewpoints on the order of 10C are present over the south-central Mediterranean ... as this air mass is advected northeastwards across the Italian peninsula and the Adriatic E of the SFC low ... it will encounter a DCVA-related upward vertical motion regime ... and scattered TSTMS should develop ... possibly by early Sunday morning along the cold front over the Tyrrhenian Sea ... and move across Italy into the Adriatic/Ionian Sea. More isolated/elevated TSTMS are expected along and E of the warm front over the Adriatic and the W Balkan States. Given quite marginal thermodynamic support ... and weak shear in the cloud-bearing layer ... threat for severe evolution should be quite low.

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